Potential profit refers to the amount of money you stand to win from a bet, excluding your original stake. It is calculated based on your stake size and the odds of the selection.
Basic Formula (Decimal Odds)
Potential Profit = Stake × (Odds − 1)
Example:
Stake: 100
Odds: 2.50
Profit = 100 × (2.50 − 1)
Profit = 100 × 1.50
Profit = 150
Total Return (including stake) = Stake × Odds
Total Return = 100 × 2.50 = 250
The 250 includes your original 100 stake, so the pure profit is 150.
Understanding the Difference
- Stake: The amount you risk.
- Profit: The net gain if the bet wins.
- Total Return: Stake + Profit.
Professional Perspective
Serious bettors do not evaluate potential profit in isolation. Instead, they consider:
- Expected Value (EV)
A high potential profit does not mean a good bet. Value depends on whether the true probability is greater than the implied probability. - Risk-Reward Ratio
Higher odds increase potential profit but also increase variance. - Bankroll Impact
Profit must be evaluated relative to total bankroll and unit size. - Long-Term Distribution
Large potential profits from long-shot bets come with high losing frequency.
Common Mistake
Focusing on how much you can win instead of whether the bet is mathematically profitable.
Example:
Odds 5.00 look attractive due to high potential profit, but if true probability is 15% (instead of implied 20%), the bet has negative expected value.
Implied Probability Formula
Implied probability = 1 / Odds
At 2.50 odds:
1 / 2.50 = 40%
You must believe the true probability exceeds 40% for the bet to have positive value.
Summary
Potential profit is the net amount you win if a bet succeeds, calculated as Stake × (Odds − 1).
From a professional standpoint, potential profit is secondary to expected value and probability accuracy. A smaller profit with positive edge is superior to a large profit with negative expectation.
