Evaluating performance only makes sense once you have a meaningful sample size.
100+ bets is not perfect — but it is a starting point where patterns begin to emerge.
Below that, variance dominates.
Above that, signal begins to appear.
Why 100+ Bets Matters
Over 10–20 bets:
Luck dominates.
Over 50 bets:
Still heavily influenced by variance.
Over 100+ bets:
You begin to see whether your edge might be real — or imagined.
It is the first sample size where evaluation becomes semi-reliable.
What To Evaluate (Not Just Profit)
Do not only look at money won or lost.
Evaluate:
Total units profit/loss
ROI (Return on Investment)
Total units staked
Win rate vs average odds
Closing line value (Did you beat the closing price?)
Drawdown size
Staking discipline
Profit alone can mislead.
ROI Interpretation
After 100+ bets:
Small ROI swings are still possible due to variance.
Example:
+3% ROI may be solid.
-2% ROI does not automatically mean no edge.
Context matters:
Market type
Average odds
Variance profile
100 bets is the beginning of evaluation — not the final verdict.
Closing Line Value (CLV) Check
One of the strongest indicators of skill is:
Did you consistently get better prices than the closing line?
If you regularly beat the market close, that suggests positive expected value — even if short-term results are mixed.
Price efficiency often predicts future profitability better than current profit.
Bankroll Discipline Review
Ask:
Did I maintain consistent percentage staking?
Did I avoid chasing losses?
Did I avoid increasing stakes after wins?
Did I stick to my value threshold?
Even 100 bets mean little if execution was inconsistent.
Emotional Stability Check
Over 100+ bets, review behavior:
Did you overreact during drawdowns?
Did you switch strategies prematurely?
Did you increase volume during bad runs?
Performance includes psychological consistency — not just numbers.
Avoid Overreaction
Even at 100 bets:
Variance still exists.
Confidence intervals are wide.
Use this milestone as a diagnostic checkpoint — not a final judgment.
Large-sample evaluation (300–500+ bets) is more reliable.
Core Principles
100+ bets allow early meaningful evaluation.
ROI and CLV matter more than short-term profit.
Execution discipline must be reviewed.
Avoid drastic changes based on limited samples.
Edge reveals itself gradually over repetition.
