A €10 Bet Returns €20 Total (€10 Stake + €10 Profit)
If a €10 bet returns €20 total, that means:
€10 is your original stake.
€10 is your profit.
Total return = €20.
What Odds Does This Represent?
To calculate the decimal odds:
Total Return ÷ Stake = Odds
€20 ÷ €10 = 2.00
So this bet was placed at odds of 2.00.
What 2.00 Odds Mean
Odds of 2.00 imply:
Implied Probability = 1 ÷ 2.00 × 100 = 50%
This means the market estimates the outcome will occur 50% of the time.
You are effectively doubling your money if the bet wins.
Break-Even Requirement
At odds of 2.00:
You must win at least 50% of the time to break even long-term.
Win more than 50% → positive expected value.
Win less than 50% → negative expected value.
Why Total Return Matters
Many beginners focus only on profit.
But total return always includes:
Stake + Profit.
Understanding this prevents confusion when calculating ROI or tracking units.
The Key Question
Before placing a €10 bet to win €10, ask:
Is the true probability higher than 50%?
If yes, it may be value.
If not, the payout is irrelevant.
Core Principles
Total return includes stake plus profit.
€10 returning €20 equals odds of 2.00.
Odds of 2.00 imply 50% probability.
Break-even at 2.00 requires 50% win rate.
Value depends on probability — not just payout.
